Tag:Hawaii
Posted on: January 11, 2011 10:39 am
 

Bowl pix by JR wrapup

Great finish to the college football season last night.

Again, I'd like to point out my comment from my Week 2 picks on Sept. 9:
"No. 21 Auburn over Mississippi State (Tigers my sleeper of the year)"

And of course -- well not really, based on my season record -- I picked Auburn to win last night. Dodd was the only expert to do so (maybe all the experts except for Chip Patterson should be replaced next season).

I was completely wrong on the high-score prediction. I had a feeling it would be low scoring heading into the game, but much easier to say after the fact. Hope no one got burnt on playing the over.

FINAL Expert Picks standings
Bowls: Patterson 22-13, Jacobi 19-16, Darst 18-17, me 18-17, Dodd 18-17 & Horowitz 17-18
Overall: Patterson 258-81, Darst 252-87, me 248-91, Dodd 245-94, Jacobi 244-95 & Horowitz 239-100

Underdog moneyline strategy
Had you followed this theory, you would have been ahead 112.8 units. And to think it started out 0-5.

Remember I said not to play any games of this theory after Dec. 31 (No underdogs won outright after this date). But if you want to know the final tally for all the bowls, here you go:

Underdog moneyline strategy
0-1/-10: New Mexico: BYU wins as FAV vs. UTEP (+320)
0-2/-10/Total -20: Humanitarian: Northern Illinois wins as FAV vs. Fresno State (+111)
0-3/-10/Total -30: New Orleans: Troy wins as FAV vs. Ohio (+110)
0-4/-10/Total -40: Beef O’Brady’s: Louisville wins as FAV vs. So. Miss (+120)
0-5/-10/Total -50: Poinsettia: San Diego St. wins as FAV vs. Navy (+130)
DNP: Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State wins as FAV vs. Utah (+550)
1-5/+31/Total -19: Hawaii: Tulsa (+310) wins as DOG vs. Hawaii
DNP:  Little Caesars: FIU opened as DOG, wins as FAV vs. Toledo
1-6/-10/Total -29: Independence: Air Force wins as FAV vs. Ga. Tech (+125)
2-6/+13/Total -16: Champs Sports: N.C. State (+130) wins as DOG vs. West Virginia
3-6/+13/Total -3: Insight: Iowa (+130) wins as DOG vs. Missouri
3-7/-10/Total -13: Military: Maryland wins as FAV vs. East Carolina (+270)
DNP: Texas: Illinois opens as DOG, wins as FAV vs. Baylor
3-8/-10/Total -23: Alamo: Oklahoma State wins as FAV vs. Arizona (+170)
4-8/+25/Total: +2: Armed Forces: Army (+250) wins as DOG vs. SMU
5-8/+10.3/Total +12.3: Pinstripe: Syracuse (+103) wins as DOG vs. Kansas State
DNP: Music City: North Carolina wins as PICK vs. Tennessee
6-8/+39/Total +51.3: Holiday: Washington (+390) wins as DOG vs. Nebraska
7-8/+17/Total +68.3: Meineke Car Care: South Florida (+170) wins as DOG vs. Clemson
8-8/+11.5/Total +79.8: Sun: Notre Dame (+115) wins as DOG vs. Miami
9-8/+21/Total +100.8: Liberty: UCF (+210) wins as DOG vs. Georgia
10-8/+12/Total +112.8: Chick-Fil-A: FSU (+120) wins as DOG vs. South Carolina
-----------------------------------
-----------------------------------
-------------------------------

10-9/-10/+92.8: TicketCity: Texas Tech wins as FAV vs. Northwestern (+250)
10-10/-10/+82.8: Outback: Florida wins as FAV vs. Penn State (+210)
10-11/-10/+72.8: Capital One: Alabama wins as FAV vs. Michigan State (+250)
10-12/-10/+62.8: Gator: Mississippi State wins as FAV vs. Michigan (+145)
10-13/-10/+52.8: Rose: TCU wins as FAV vs. Wisconsin (+130)
10-14/-10/+42.8: Fiesta: Oklahoma wins as FAV vs. Connecticut (+520)
10-15/-10/+32.8: Orange: Stanford wins as FAV vs. Virginia Tech (+155)
10-16/-10/+22.8: Sugar: Ohio State wins as FAV vs. Arkansas (+130)
DNP: Go Daddy.com: Miami (Oh) opens as FAV, wins as DOG vs. Middle Tennessee State
10-17/-10/+12.8: Cotton: LSU wins as FAV vs. Texas A&M (+110)
10-18/-10/+2.8: BBVA Compass: Pittsburgh wins as FAV vs. Kentucky (+165)
10-19/-10/-7.2: Fight Hunger: Nevada wins as FAV vs. Boston College (+250)
DNP: Title game: Auburn opens as FAV, wins as PICK vs. Oregon

Thanks to those who often checked in. I was stunned to see each weekly blog received over 1,000 views and the Bowls pix blog received over 17,000 views. Maybe some of you were checking in to see who not to bet on, but I hoped some of the information helped.

Enjoy the offseason -- and feel free to check out CBSSports.com's baseball coverage through the year as that is my primary job here.

JR

Category: NCAAF
Tags: Air Force, Alabama, Alamo Bowl, Arizona, Arkansas, Armed Forces Bowl, Army, Auburn, Bama, Baylor, BBVA Compass Bowl, BCS Championship Game, BCS Title Game, Beef O’Brady’s Bowl, Boise State, Boston College, bowl predictions, bowl season, Brigham Young, BYU, Capital One Bowl, Central Florida, Champs Sports Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Clemson, College football, college football handicapping, college football picks, Connecticut, Cotton Bowl, Eagle Bank Bowl, East Carolina, expert picks, Fiesta Bowl, Fight Hunger Bowl, FIU, Florida, Florida International, Florida State, Fresno State, FSU, Ga. Tech, Gator Bowl, Georgia, Georgia Tech, GoDaddy.com Bowl, Hawaii, Hawaii Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Humanitarian Bowl, Illinois, Independence Bowl, Insight Bowl, Iowa, K-State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Liberty Bowl, Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Louisiana State, Louisville, LSU, Maaco Bowl, Maryland, Meineke Car Care Bowl, Miami, Miami of Ohio, Michigan, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee State, Military Bowl, Mississippi State, Missouri, money line, moneyline, MSU, Music City Bowl, Navy, NC State, NCAA football, NCAA football picks, NCAA handicapping, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico Bowl, New Orleans Bowl, NIU, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Ohio State, OK State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Orange Bowl, Oregon, OSU, Outback Bowl, Penn State, Pinstripe Bowl, Pittsburgh, Poinsettia Bowl, Rose Bowl, San Diego State, SMU, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Methodist, Southern Miss, Southern Mississippi, St. Petersburg Bowl, Stanford, Sugar Bowl, Sun Bowl, Syracuse, TCU, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Bowl, Texas Christian, Texas Tech, Texas-El Paso, TicketCity Bowl, Toledo, Top 25, Troy, Tulsa, UCF, UConn, UNC, underdogs, upsets, USF, Utah, UTEP, Va. Tech, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin
 
Posted on: December 17, 2010 10:48 pm
Edited on: December 17, 2010 11:05 pm
 

Bowl pix by JR -- the Real Expert

Are you ready for the Bowl Season? First kickoff is less than 16 hours away.

Even though I failed to defend my regular-season title among the experts, I look to bounce back with my bowl picks … but I have always struggled this time of year. You never know what team will show up; if a team is so bummed it's not playing in a bigger bowl (See Alabama) and isn't as focused as it should be.

But below, I'm making my picks anyway. More importantly, I'd like to point out my underdog moneyline strategy, which I will keep an updated scorecard for on the comment part of this blog.

The idea: Play the moneyline on the underdog for every bowl through Dec. 30. In the picks below, I list the moneyline in parentheses from scoresandodds.com.

Ex: BYU over UTEP (+320) means, even though I'm picking BYU to win to help my standings vs. the experts, I'm suggesting to play UTEP at +320 to win outright. I will keep records for my picks and the underdog moneylines for all the games. But I don't like the underdog moneylines after Dec. 30.

Some games won't have a +moneyline next to it, because there isn't one if the game is virtually a pick 'em.

Before getting to my winners below, a quick reminder of the Expert Picks regular-season standings: Chip Patterson 236-68, Darst 234-70, me 230-74, Dodd 2227-77, Jacobi 225-79 & Horowitz 222-82.

HANDICAPPING
As for my regular-season suggestions, I finished 19-23-1. I know, not good, but we'll get three of them back on Day 1 as I like the lines on all three games (UTEP +11½, Northern Illinois -1½ & Ohio +2).

There are a total of seven games I like. Add Central Florida +6½, Michigan State +9½, TCU-Wisconsin over of 58½ and Kentucky +3½.

If there are any more that pop up, I'll post on the comment board of this blog.

Good luck and have a happy holiday & bowl season.

THE WINNERS
SATURDAY, DEC. 18
New Mexico:  BYU over UTEP (+320) – Take the 11½ points
Humanitarian: Northern Illinois over Fresno State (+114) – Lay the 1½ 
New Orleans: Ohio (+110) over Troy – Take the 2 points

TUESDAY, DEC. 21
Beef O'Brady's:  Southern Mississippi (+120) over Louisville

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 22
Maaco: Boise State over Utah (+485) 

THURSDAY, DEC. 23
Poinsettia: San Diego State over Navy (+165)

FRIDAY, DEC. 24
Hawaii: Hawaii over Tulsa (+305)

SUNDAY, DEC. 26
Little Caesars: Florida International (+108) over Toledo

MONDAY, DEC. 27
Independence: Air Force over Georgia Tech (+125)

TUESDAY, DEC. 28
Champs Sports: West Virginia over North Carolina State (+125)
Insight: Missouri over Iowa (+108)

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 29
Military: East Carolina (+240) over Maryland
Texas: Baylor over Illinois (+110)
Alamo: Arizona (+175) over Oklahoma State

THURSDAY, DEC. 30
Armed Forces: SMU over Army (+250)
Pinstripe: Kansas State over Syracuse
Music City: Tennessee (+110) over North Carolina
Holiday: Nebraska over Washington (+400)

FRIDAY, DEC. 31
Meineke Car Care: Clemson over South Florida (+170)
Sun: Notre Dame (+125) over Miami
Liberty: Georgia over Central Florida (+210) – Take the 6½ points
Chick-Fil-A: South Carolina over Florida State (+135)

SATURDAY, JAN. 1, 2011
TicketCity: Texas Tech over Northwestern (+300)
Outback: Florida over Penn State (+250)
Capital One: Alabama over Michigan State (+310) – Take the 9½ points
Gator: Mississippi State over Michigan (+170)
Rose: Wisconsin 36 (+120), TCU 28 – Play the over of 58½
Fiesta: Oklahoma 42, Connecticut 13 (+475)

MONDAY, JAN. 3
Orange: Stanford 38, Virginia Tech 30 (+140)

TUESDAY, JAN. 4
Sugar: Ohio State 31, Arkansas 24 (+145)

THURSDAY, JAN. 6
Go Daddy.com: Miami of Ohio over Middle Tennessee State

FRIDAY, JAN. 7
Cotton: LSU over Texas A&M (+101)

SATURDAY, JAN. 8
BBVA Compass: Kentucky (+145) over Pittsburgh – Take the 3½ points

SUNDAY, JAN. 9
Fight Hunger: Nevada over Boston College (+310)

MONDAY, JAN. 10
BCS title game: Auburn 43, Oregon 38 (+135)

Category: NCAAF
Tags: Air Force, Alabama, Alamo Bowl, Arizona, Arkansas, Armed Forces Bowl, Army, Auburn, Bama, Baylor, BBVA Compass Bowl, BCS Championship Game, BCS Title Game, Beef O’Brady’s Bowl, Boise State, Boston College, bowl predictions, bowl season, Brigham Young, BYU, Capital One Bowl, Central Florida, Champs Sports Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Clemson, College football, college football handicapping, college football picks, Connecticut, Cotton Bowl, Eagle Bank Bowl, East Carolina, expert picks, Fiesta Bowl, Fight Hunger Bowl, FIU, Florida, Florida International, Florida State, Fresno State, FSU, Ga. Tech, Gator Bowl, Georgia, Georgia Tech, GoDaddy.com Bowl, Hawaii, Hawaii Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Humanitarian Bowl, Illinois, Independence Bowl, Insight Bowl, Iowa, K-State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Liberty Bowl, Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Louisiana State, Louisville, LSU, Maaco Bowl, Maryland, Meineke Car Care Bowl, Miami, Miami of Ohio, Michigan, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee State, Military Bowl, Mississippi State, Missouri, money line, moneyline, MSU, Music City Bowl, Navy, NC State, NCAA football, NCAA football picks, NCAA handicapping, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico Bowl, New Orleans Bowl, NIU, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Ohio State, OK State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Orange Bowl, Oregon, OSU, Outback Bowl, Penn State, Pinstripe Bowl, Pittsburgh, Poinsettia Bowl, Rose Bowl, San Diego State, SMU, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Methodist, Southern Miss, Southern Mississippi, St. Petersburg Bowl, Stanford, Sugar Bowl, Sun Bowl, Syracuse, TCU, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Bowl, Texas Christian, Texas Tech, Texas-El Paso, TicketCity Bowl, Toledo, Top 25, Troy, Tulsa, UCF, UConn, UNC, underdogs, upsets, USF, Utah, UTEP, Va. Tech, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin
 
Posted on: December 5, 2010 12:47 am
Edited on: December 5, 2010 12:50 am
 

JR, the Real Expert -- final pix tally

I went 8-3 in Week 14. Even though the Hawaii-UNLV game isn't over, I'm counting it as a win since Hawaii leads 31-7 at the half. Plus, all the experts picked Hawaii. If UNLV pulls off a miracle, I'll update the appropriate records.

My losses this week were Northern Illinois (to Miami of Ohio), Nebraska (to Oklahoma) and Florida State (to Virginia Tech). Congrats to the RedHawks on an thrilling victory and an amazing turnaround from last season's 1-11 showing.

Overall, I closed out the regular-season at 230-74.

So I failed to defend my title and even lost to Darst. Chip Patterson finished first at 236-68; Darst was second at 234-70. The rest of the Experts: Dodd 227-77, Jacobi 225-79 & Horowitz 222-82 -- Again, I will fix if Hawaii loses.

I didn't have any handicapping suggestions this past week, so I finished 19-23-1 there. My deepest apologies.

With Auburn and Oregon headed to the title game, I'd like to point out my Auburn comment from my Week 2 picks.

"No. 21 Auburn over Mississippi State (Tigers my sleeper of the year)"

It's one of the few positives I have from this past season. I was also the only expert to pick South Carolina over then-No. 1 Alabama in Week 6, but I should point out I was wrong when I picked USC to knock of then-No. 1 Oregon in Week 9.

I also picked against Auburn, when ranked No. 2, vs. Georgia in Week 11 and vs. Alabama in Week 13.

As for Oregon, I picked the Ducks to lose to Tennessee in Week 2 and to USC in Week 9 ... so I was obviously wrong there.

But what a fun season it has been.

For the bowl season, I'm going to track an underdog moneyline strategy, which I've done in my blog before.

It's simple. Play all the dogs on the moneyline before the Jan. 1 games. In the past, this usually comes out ahead, not by much, but enough to make the bowl season fun … especially if you hit a +400 or better win-outright dog.

To whatever loyal fans I have, thanks for your time & I hope you enjoyed my picks – even if you were only looking to "go the other way."
JR

Posted on: December 3, 2010 12:56 pm
 

Week 14 pix by JR -- the Real Expert

I went 16-7 in Week 13. My losses were Alabama (over Auburn), Boise State (over Nevada), Penn State (over Michigan State), BYU (over Utah), Iowa (over Minnesota), Mississippi (over Mississippi State) and Pitt (over West Virginia).

My overall record is now 222-71, and I actually picked up a game on Chip Patterson, but still trail him in the overall standings by three games.

Overall standings for the Experts: Chip 226-57, Darst 224-69, me 222-71, Dodd 218-75, Jacobi 217-76 & Horowitz 213-80. With a week to go before the bowl season, it doesn’t look like I’ll successfully defend my title. But we’ll see.

On to Week 14

FRIDAY
MAC Championship: Northern Illinois over Miami of Ohio

SATURDAY
No. 1 Oregon over Oregon State
SEC Championship: No. 2 Auburn 41, No. 18 South Carolina 30
No. 9 Boise State over Utah State
Big 12 Championship: No. 13 Nebraska 38, No. 10 Oklahoma 37
ACC Championship: No. 24 Florida State 23, No. 12 Virginia Tech 21

No. 14 Nevada over Louisiana Tech
No. 23 West Virginia over Rutgers
No. 25 Hawaii over UNLV

C-USA Championship: Central Florida over SMU
Connecticut over South Florida

WEEK 13 HANDICAPPING (3-4)
(Sorry, no suggestions this week)

Wins: Over 43½ (closed at 44½) in TCU 66, New Mexico 17; Over 57½ (closed at 58½) in Wisconsin 70, Northwestern 23; Over 53½ (closed at 54½) in Indiana 34, Purdue 31

Losses: Taking Alabama -4½ in Auburn 28, Alabama 27; Over of 47½ in Texas 24, Texas A&M 17 (closed at 48); Over of 54½ (closed at 57½) in Arkansas 31, LSU 23; Taking Penn State +1½ in Michigan State 28, PSU 22

That makes me 19-23-1 on the year.

Posted on: November 3, 2010 10:58 pm
Edited on: November 3, 2010 11:02 pm
 

Week 10 pix by JR -- the Real Expert

I went 16-5 in Week 9, but it will go down as 15-5 since the experts didn't pick last Tuesday's obvious Boise State win over La. Tech.

That makes me 160-44 on the season. I'm now three games back of Chip Patterson, who went 17-3.

Overall standings:  Chip 163-41, me 160-44, Darst 158-46, Jacobi 157-47, Dodd 153-51 & Horowitz 147-57.

I lost on USC (to Oregon), FSU (to N.C. State), Miami (to Virginia), Texas (to Baylor) and Georgia (to Florida).

Now to Week 10's picks

THURSDAY
No. 20 Virginia Tech over Georgia Tech

SATURDAY
No. 1 Oregon over Washington
No. 2 Boise State over Hawaii
No. 3 Auburn over Chattanooga (Total joke of scheduling)
No. 6 Utah 20, No. 4 TCU 17 (Play the under of 52)
No. 5 Alabama 24, No. 12 LSU 16

No. 7 Wisconsin over Purdue
No. 9 Nebraska over Iowa State
No. 10 Stanford 35, No. 13 Arizona 27
No. 11 Oklahoma over Texas A&M (Lay the 3 points – the line should be 10-plus)
No. 14 Missouri over Texas Tech (Lay the 4 points)

No. 15 Iowa over Indiana
No. 16 Michigan State over Minnesota
South Carolina 31, No. 17 Arkansas 27
No. 19 Oklahoma State 38, No. 22 Baylor 33 (Play the under of 73)
Clemson over No. 23 N.C. State

No. 24 Florida State over North Carolina (Take the 10½ points)
No. 25 Nevada over Idaho

Michigan over Illinois
Air Force over Army
Texas over Kansas State

WEEK 9 HANDICAPPING (0-1)
I suggested the over in Nebraska 31, Missouri 17 (closed at 55½).
Sorry. Can't win 'em all ... but notice, I have five suggestions with the big play on the Sooners.

Posted on: October 14, 2010 6:37 pm
 

Week 7 pix by JR -- the Real Expert

Yep, I picked South Carolina last week. I was off on the score – I said 20-17 – but I still nailed it when calling for the No. 1 team in the country to go down.

None of the so-called experts had South Carolina winning. This must be why they kicked me, the defending champion, out of their club. They were sick and tired of me embarrassing them every week. Did Dennis Dodd really pick Kansas State last week? KSU lost to Nebraska 48-13. Ouch!

Stick to reporting Dennis. Avoid the predictions, will ya?

However, I did drop the ball on Arizona (to Oregon State), Florida (to LSU), Miami (to FSU), Michigan (to MSU) and my upset call of Texas A&M (to Arkansas).

So I went 17-5 in Week 6, making me 114-24 on the year. That leave me in second all alone, one game back of Facts & Rumors blogger Chip Patterson, who had an impressive 18-4 showing, beating me on my A&M pick with Arkansas and my Michigan pick with MSU.

Now to Week 7

THURSDAY
No. 25 West Virginia over South Florida

SATURDAY
No. 1 Ohio State 33, No. 18 Wisconsin 16
No. 3 Boise State over San Jose State
No. 4 TCU over BYU (play the over of 48.5)
No. 5 Nebraska 31, Texas 17
No. 6 Oklahoma over Iowa State

No. 7 Auburn 28, No. 12 Arkansas 27
No. 8 Alabama over Mississippi
No. 9 LSU over McNeese State (this is just wrong, playing a team like this in October)
No. 10 South Carolina over Kentucky
No. 11 Utah over Wyoming

No. 13 Michigan State over Illinois
No. 15 Iowa over Michigan (I like the over of 53.5)
No. 15 Florida State over Boston College
No. 17 Arizona over Washington State
No. 19 Nevada over Hawaii (a small play on the under of 74)

Texas Tech over No. 20 Oklahoma State
Texas A&M over No. 21 Missouri
No. 22  Florida over Mississippi State (lay the 7.5)
No. 23 Air Force over San Diego State
Washington over No. 24 Oregon State

N.C. State over East Carolina
Syracuse over Pittsburgh
USC over Cal

MORE HANDICAPPING
I like (just a little) Minnesota-Purdue over of 51

WEEK 6 RECAP (17-5)
Losses mentioned in lead-in graphs, but for handicapping purposes, I went 1-0, suggesting to take the 22 points in Minnesota-Wisconsin. That puts me on a six-game win streak!!!!

Posted on: September 9, 2010 12:44 pm
Edited on: September 16, 2010 1:12 am
 

Week 2 pix by JR -- the Real Expert

I went 22-3 in the first week, losing on Va. Tech, UConn & Fresno.
Ready for Week 2? There are some big games this week.

THURSDAY
No. 21 Auburn over Mississippi State (Tigers my sleeper of the year)

FRIDAY
No. 23 West Virginia over Marshall

SATURDAY
No. 1 Alabama 20, No. 18 Penn State 17
No. 2 Ohio State 34, No. 12 Miami 6
No. 4 TCU over Tennessee Tech (the start of the Frogs’ easy season-long schedule)
No. 5 Texas over Wyoming
No. 6 Nebraska over Idaho

Tennessee over No. 7 Oregon (Notice all the so-called experts like the Ducks)
No. 8 Florida over South Florida
No. 9 Iowa over Iowa State
No. 10 Oklahoma 30, No. 17 Florida State 23
No. 11 Wisconsin over San Jose State

No. 13 Virginia Tech over James Madison (Uggh. At least the Hokies are playing. Boise State taking week off. LAME!)No. 14 Arkansas over La.-Monroe
No. 15 Georgia Tech over Kansas (Jayhawks embarrassed itself last week in 6-3 loss to North Dakota State)
No. 16 USC over Virginia
No. 19 LSU over Vandy (take the 10 points)

No. 20 Utah over UNLV
No. 24 South Carolina 27, over No. 22 Georgia 24 (OT wouldn’t shock me)
UCLA over No. 25 Stanford

Michigan 34, Notre Dame 27
Army over Hawaii
Air Force over BYU

WEEK 1 RECAP (22-3)
Lost one ranked game (Va. Tech) and failed on UConn at Michigan (which resembles a top 20 team, again) Fresno vs. Cincy.

In handicapping suggestions, I was wrong on Ohio State & the under in TCU-Oregon State.

Was correct on taking points in Arkansas State-Auburn and on small hunch of Beavers covering against Horned Frogs.

 
 
 
 
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